Say this about Dylan Larkin; the guy is consistent. He also might be a bit more prolific than many realize.
For the past five seasons, Larkin has scored somewhere between 30 and 34 goals. In all, six of his nine non-pandemic-impacted NHL campaigns have ended with Larkin netting between 30 and 34 tallies.
While a 30-goal season is nothing to sneeze at, it obviously doesn’t put you in the running to take home the Rocket Richard Trophy. That said, putting 30 home every season for five straight years lands you in quite exclusive company.
In addition to Larkin, the only six players who’ve hit paydirt at least 30 times in the past five campaigns are Kyle Connor, Leon Draisaitl, Jake Guentzel, Nathan MacKinnon, William Nylander and Alex Ovechkin.
That should re-enforce the idea that Larkin’s sudden inclusion in the summer trade market is a huge deal. Early this week, Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press said the teams “believed to be on Larkin’s list” of acceptable destinations are the Minnesota Wild, Florida Panthers and Vegas Golden Knights.
That triggered a counterpoint from basically the entire hockey world noting Wings GM Steve Yzerman would probably respond with something along the lines of, “That’s wonderful, thank you for your insights, Dylan.”
Yzerman, as we know, won’t be bullied into anything and surely views Larkin’s reported list as nothing more than a suggested starting point. When building out potential trades for Larkin, we adopted a similar attitude; see what’s possible with the cited clubs, but don’t exclude the field.
With that in mind, here are three potential Larkin swaps. Two involve clubs from Larkin’s list, while a third just makes too much sense not to include.
Let’s dive in.
Minnesota Wild get: Dylan Larkin, Philipp Grubauer
Seattle Kraken get: Jesper Wallstedt, Nico Sturm
Detroit Reds Wings get: Matty Beniers, Yakov Trenin, centre prospect Charlie Stramel
Why it works: Ultimately, the Wild are the best match here in terms of team need and the player’s desire to be there. The team is all in on contending right now and has been looking for a top centre for a while. The Wild blew a lot of powder acquiring Quinn Hughes six months ago, so sacrificing Wallstedt — whose name surfaced in rumours during the season in relation to Minny’s 1C search — would be necessary. Shedding Sturm and Trenin — neither of whom have trade protection — helps with salary concerns and the acquiring teams only have to employ them for one (Sturm) or two (Trenin) more years if they so choose. Grubauer — who holds a 10-team no-trade list — is only inked for one more year and can back up Filip Gustavsson for a season, maybe more if the battery works.
Seattle needs a shakeup and this could be it. We’ve long assumed the Kraken are hunting an offensive difference-maker, but sometimes you take what’s available. Joey Daccord has been reliable for Seattle the past three seasons, but the 23-year-old Wallstedt’s stud upside trumps that. The two could form one of the league’s best duos and, with the cap going up, Daccord’s AAV of $5 million wouldn’t be debilitating even if Wallstedt signed a big extension this summer. Beniers has obviously flatlined since his rookie-of-the-year showing in 2022-23, so perhaps Seattle is ready to cut bait. The Kraken have intriguing offensive prospects Berkly Catton and Jake O’Brien coming, and should snag another good young player at No. 7 in two weeks at the NHL Draft.
When it comes to the Red Wings, the reality is there’s no perfect solution here. Assuming a pure futures swap doesn’t get it done for Detroit, the next-best thing might be a reasonable bet on a young player who’s shown something significant at the NHL level. Beniers, who played college hockey at Michigan, has size and skill. Maybe, with his 24th birthday still ahead of him in November, he can put it all together in Detroit and give the Wings a reasonable Larkin replacement.
Florida Panthers get: Dylan Larkin
New York Rangers get: Ninth-overall pick from Florida
Detroit Red Wings get: Vincent Trocheck, Mackie Samoskevich, Eetu Luostarinen, 26th-overall pick from New York, forward prosect Malcolm Spence
Why it works: Truthfully, Florida’s top priority is probably sorting out its goaltending situation, with Sergei Bobrovsky ready to become a UFA in July before turning 38 in September. But, hey, the Panthers always act boldly and this would give them a murderous top-nine forward group, with all kinds of options for who lines up at centre and wing.
The Rangers are re-tooling and the opportunity to turn Trocheck into a premium asset like the ninth pick in a good draft (at the top, anyway) is too much to turn down. New York — which also holds the fifth selection — could walk away from the draft with new cornerstone players at both forward and defence.
Detroit doesn’t want to take a step back and Trocheck, though clearly not a 1C, does a bit of everything up the middle and buys you some time to develop the likes of Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson. Trocheck, who turns 33 in July, has a 10-team no-trade list. Samoskevich is a pending-RFA in need of a new contract and, in all likelihood, a new opportunity. Luostarinen has size and Cup pedigree, while the first-rounder from New York gives Yzerman a chance to make a pick in a draft where he presently doesn’t hold a first-round selection. Alternatively, he could flip it for more immediate help.
Anaheim Ducks get: Dylan Larkin
Detroit Red Wings get: Mason McTavish, Pavel Mintyukov, highest two of Anaheim’s three 2027 second-round picks
Why it works: Anaheim might not be on Larkin’s reported wish list, but one small round of expansion should get the Ducks inside the circle. Southern California is rarely a tough sell on players and, most importantly, the team has a clear and credible upward trajectory.
Larkin would be a deadly 2C behind Leo Carlsson, with the ability to take some hard minutes and tough matchups away from the young Swede when necessary. The Ducks must believe they can win it all in the next three or four years and Larkin — signed for five more years through his age-34 season — is still young enough to bring his A game through that window.
As for the Wings, McTavish is a strong bounce-back candidate after being scratched in the playoffs. The third-overall pick from 2021 is big, talented and inked through 2030-31. At 23, he should be on the precipice of his best NHL years. Mintyukov — a pending-RFA — doesn’t turn 23 until November and while Wings fans might already be sick of seeing the words “bounce back,” that’s the reality of the situation when you’re forced into trading a player like Larkin. The off-season is a time for positively, so just dream on a scenario where both McTavish and Mintyukov find their best self in Detroit. That would mean Yzerman landed a top-six centre and top-four D-man — both with size — to play in the lineup for a decade. If the Wings are competitive next season, dealing a couple second-rounders ahead of the trade deadline is the type of move that could return a significant piece.
Throw in the shared history of Ducks GM Pat Verbeek working with Yzerman in Tampa Bay and Detroit, and this becomes a borderline call-it-in scenario.
